From: the financial industry
This article comes from: Selected selection of brokerage research reports
Source: Huafu SecuritiesPune Investment
On June 3, 2024, the Indian Sensex30 index hit a record high.However, it ushered in severe adjustments on June 4th. The largest decline in the session exceeded 8%, and the final decrease of 5.7%in the final day, becoming the largest day of the index fluctuations in the past 4 years.The result of the Indian election is the direct cause of the recent significant fluctuations in the Indian stock market. Previously, many media polls predicted that the Indian People’s Party led by Modi would win an overwhelming victory.However, the results of the ticket counting on Tuesday showed that the National Democratic Alliance led by the Indian People’s Party only won with a weak advantage, and the Indian People’s Party failed to obtain a majority of seats alone.In the future, joint governance may bring uncertainty to economic and social reform, and short -term investors may take a wait -and -see attitude.
From a long -term perspective, India is still a large and vibrant economy in Pan -South Asia.Although facing certain challenges (such as insufficient infrastructure, imbalance of industrial structure, low industrial proportion, large gap between the rich and the poor, long -term trade deficit, etc.), the huge development potential of India also cannot be ignored (such as demographic dividend, scale economy, domestic politics, domestic politicsStable, geopolitical advantages, developed IT service industry, etc.).In the future, the Indian economy is expected to maintain a mid -to -high -speed growth for a long time, and the Indian stock market is still worth paying attention to.
The Indian People’s Party is less than expected
The Indian election was held from April 19th to June 1st, 2024, and the results were announced on June 4.Earlier, the Indian People’s Party, led by Modi, will achieve an overwhelming victory. The actual votes show that although the National Democratic Alliance led by the Indian People’s Party of the ruling party, although the National Democratic Alliance has won, the Indian People’s Party failed to obtain a majority of seats alone. At the same time, it won this year.The 240 seats were far lower than the 303 seats won in the 2019 election.This means that the implementation of the Modi government’s future policy implementation may face more trade -offs, or restrict the government’s policy implementation progress of economic and social reform, and short -term investors may take a wait -and -see attitude.
Indian extreme high temperature weather is concerned
Since May 2024, extreme high -temperature weather has appeared in many places in India, including the attack of extreme heat waves in the northern region, including the capital New Delhi.High -temperature weather not only threatened human life, but also had a great impact on the economy.For example, it has caused adverse effects on agricultural production, hydropower supply, construction construction, and factory operationVaranasi Wealth Management. It is necessary to keep attention to extreme high -temperature weather. Excessive duration may be dragged down on the macro economy.
The future economic growth is at the forefront of the world
According to the "World Economic Outlook Report" released by the IMF in April this year, it is expected that the actual GDP growth rate of India in 2024 is expected to reach 6.8%.This economic growth rate is not only higher than the global average and the average level of developed economies, but also higher than the economic growth level of a series of ASEAN countries.IMF predicts that in the next 5 years, India’s actual GDP’s actual growth rate is expected to maintain a central level of 6.5%.
Risk reminder: Historical experience does not represent future, economic policy changes, risks of great fluctuations in exchange rates, slowing technological progress affect productivity and geopolitical risks.
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